Snowpack across Colorado is several weeks longer than the normal peak season.
Winter storms bring above-average snowfall to southwestern Colorado. (Jerry McBride Archive / Durango Herald)
Snow is accumulating in the West Slope weeks earlier than usual, and with more snow expected, experts say healthy supplies will bring relief to Colorado's dwindling reservoirs.
Rivers of western Colorado help feed the Colorado River Basin, which supplies water to 40 million people in the West. The basin experienced its worst drought in 1,200 years: according to some estimates, it will take an average of three ice years without consumption for the basin's reserves to return to normal. This year, the snow has been heavy in the mountains that serve as headwaters for the Colorado River, with some areas even reporting record levels of snowfall.
“For me, the most amazing thing about this year's snowpack is that usually, in a normal year, we hit our normal peak around April 1st. We reached maximum snow values at the beginning of March and we're still climbing. Hydrology at the Colorado River Basin Prediction Center.”So we're well ahead of schedule, if you will, and we still have time to add a few more snowpacks.
Snow cover across Colorado averaged 127 percent between 1991 and 2020, according to SNOTEL data compiled by the Natural Resources Conservation Service.
The numbers are better on the western slopes. Snow water, the amount of liquid water in snow, is equal to 147 percent of the historical average in the Gunnison Basin and 136 percent of the average in the Yampa and White basins on Monday. The average snow cover in the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas, and San Juan watersheds in southwest Colorado is 149%, the highest in the entire state.
Satellites monitor Colorado ice fields from above, said Adrian Marshall, a computational hydrologist at the Colorado School of Mines.
"This is higher than it was in the last 20 years when we had satellite records," said Marshall, who specializes in using a variety of data modeling techniques to understand how climate change is changing. Water sources.
However, ice mass in the Arkansas Basin of eastern Colorado was 78% of the historical average and the South Platte Basin was 106% on Monday.
"We're seeing below-average snow cover on all of the mountains that drain into the Arkansas River, and that's concerning," said Becky Bollinger, an assistant climatologist at Colorado State. This means that you will have less running water, less irrigation supplies, and less water supplies. The river may be low this summer.
For the Colorado River Basin, how ice levels ultimately translate into water resource availability depends on factors such as remaining snow and soil moisture.
Unusual forecasts of rainy weather for the rest of March could continue to boost numbers in the basin and the state, Miller and Bollinger said. Over the next two weeks, the Colorado River Prediction Center expects 1 to 2.5 inches of snow to fall in the high mountains. Lower elevations can expect 0.5 to 1 inch of rain and/or snow.
"I don't see anything right now that could reverse this situation and put us through a drought," Bollinger said.
However, the valley has seen very dry land in recent years, Miller said. When runoff occurs in the spring, dry soil absorbs moisture, reducing its ability to travel downstream and fill needed water reservoirs. While soil moisture conditions in November appear to be slightly better than in 2020 and 2021, many government departments are still reporting drier-than-usual conditions based on historical data.
Although the land is dry, Miller said, hydrologists still expect to see above-average flow in the basin.
Bollinger said that while they are important, healthy ice packs will not lead to recovery at the bottom of the giant reservoirs, Lake Powell and Lake Mead.
"They're huge," he said. "She's huge. She's only a year old."
These massive water savings explain the relief from drought, now in its 23rd year, which has caused an emergency for water users in the West. In 2021, the Blue Mesa Reservoir in Gunnison County conducted an emergency dump to shore up water levels in drought-exhausted Lake Powell. The move lowered the water level in Blue Mesa and crippled the local summertime economy.
This year, Lake Powell could end its 2023 hydrological year, which ends Sept. 30, at 3,555 feet, or 32 percent of its capacity, according to a Bureau of Reclamation projection in February. That's 35 feet higher than Monday's elevation.
The Glen Canyon Dam cannot generate hydroelectric power when Lake Powell reaches 3,490 feet, which is the minimum height for the power reservoir. The height of the dead pond, when no water is flowing through the dam, is 3,370 feet.
At the current rate of water consumption, he said, "we're probably going to have six or seven consecutive years like this."
Bollinger said Snowpack in Colorado promises to be a good restoration of reservoirs across the state. However, the water district manager and water users will continue to monitor the incoming rains.
Snow mass looks good now, says Greg Peterson, executive director of the Colorado Ag Water Alliance, but the next few months are no guarantees. For the Arkansas basin, he says, "it's party or famine for water."
"At least no one I've spoken to thinks this drought is over," Peterson said. "Everything was just, 'This is a gift.'" We have a year. It will give us time to solve all our problems."
In November, it snows on Lake Havilland, north of Durango. (Jerry McBride Archive / Durango Herald)
People in southwestern Colorado saw a promising snow drift, but were reluctant to get their hopes up, said Ken Curtis, general manager of the Dolores Water Conservation District.
So far so good, but everyone might be a little surprised. It's like, 'I'm going to believe it when I see it,'" he said.
"Hitting on all cylinders," Curtis said in southwestern Colorado, which has seen some of the driest soil moisture in the state in recent years. By 2021, the McVeigh Reservoir in Curtis County is expected to fill 27% of its historical average of 35 years. At one time it was estimated that sprinklers would receive only 1 inch of irrigation water per acre, or 4.5% of 22 inches per acre when the tank was full.
Good snow cover this year means more water supplies for next year and more security for the next dry winter.
It looks like we have a good chance of getting a full supply for the first time since 2019, so that's great."
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